By: Michael Mace, Dave Garr, Jon Holtzman, Karen Lynch
Comdex / Fall 1988
Summary
Introduction. This report summarizes trends and announcements at the Fall Comdex show, which was held in late November. The show did not feature any major announcements, but it underlined clearly the broad support for OS/2 among the PC industry. Many customers and vendors seem to be skeptical about the near-term delivery schedule and costs of OS/2, but most seemed to believe that it will eventually be the operating system of choice for IBM-standard PCs.
Situation
Business as usual. This year’s Comdex show featured all the usual attractions: Big crowds, packed hotels, and long lines for taxis. There were few major announcements, but as usual the show provided a lot of insights about the directions of the PC industry.
Show focus changes from resellers to users. Comdex was started as a show in which resellers and vendors could meet quietly. That emphasis has changed. More and more attendees are PC users, especially corporate MIS types who come to the show to look at new equipment and get a feel for trends in the industry. The press also covers the show this way. Many PC vendors have responded to this trend by using using their booths to market directly to computer-buyers.
IBM’s OS/2 claims are misleading. IBM made a number of efforts to convince attendees that OS/2 is taking off rapidly. Some of these claims were misleading, if not downright false. For instance, IBM distributed a pamphlet which its booth personnel described as a listing of all currently shipping OS/2 applications. This pamphlet listed about 260 programs, many of which are not yet shipping in OS/2 versions. Furthermore, IBM had a large sign in its booth that stated, “OS/2: Over 800 Solutions Available.” We think that IBM meant the 800 to include DOS applications that run in OS/2’s compatibility box. However, that is very misleading. Those are not OS/2 solutions; those are DOS solutions. IBM appears to be so anxious about acceptance of OS/2 that it’s willing to come close to lying in order to promote it..
OS/2 was the theme. There was tremendous focus on OS/2 and OS/2 applications. Even though few developers were showing shipping OS/2 applications, most were talking about supporting OS/2 in the future. The public seemed to buy into the inevitability of OS/2 without serious questions, although there was skepticism about its cost and delivery dates.
Lots of laptops. We saw more laptop and portable computers than ever before, particularly from Japanese manufacturers. For Comdex, at least, 1988 was finally the long-awaited Year of the Laptop.
Little software for Windows. In spite of evidence of rising customer interest in Windows, there was little Windows software at the show. Most of the vendors, and even developers, seemed to be concentrating on positioning themselves for OS/2. This is probably bad news for Windows users who are expecting a lot of new productivity software.
Little fervor for Micro Channel, Unix. In spite of a lot of pre-show hype, attendees at the show displayed little interest in either the Unix operating system or IBM’s Micro Channel architecture. In both cases, we think vendors will have to demonstrate compelling applications in order to attract the interest of the computer-buying public.
Impacts
Slow acceptance for OS/2...but eventual success. It’s important to distinguish between short-term and long-term reactions to OS/2. In the short run, many customers and developers seem to be skeptical about OS/2; they are alarmed about its price and memory consumption. Therefore, relatively few of them seem to be rushing to move to OS/2 immediately. However, in the long run, most DOS users and developers at the show seemed to believe that they would eventually move to OS/2. We saw a lot of public interest in its feature set, and in the applications being developed for it. Unless the Unix vendors do something dramatic, we think OS/2 will be the operating system of the future for most DOS owners.
Big activity in laptops. Competition in the laptop computer market continues to intensify, led by a remarkable rush by Japanese vendors. We are hard-pressed to think of a single Japanese PC vendor that didn’t devote a large part of its booth to laptops—often several models with numerous configurations. The public seems to be fairly interested in them, but we doubt that this many vendors can all be successful. Likely future outcomes are more confusion, and a lot of price erosion as the Japanese battle for share.
Users don’t buy specifications. We were impressed at the lack of interest that users displayed in a number of products that have been well-hyped, but cannot yet deliver a lot of value to the average PC user. The Micro Channel architecture, the EISA architecture, Open Look, and Unix all failed to excite the crowds. We think a lot of customers are becoming disenchanted with new PC products that promise wonderful things but can’t yet demonstrate them in action.
An enormous opportunity for Apple next year. We think Apple could make an enormous splash at the 1989 Fall Comdex. It will be a slow year for the IBM-standard world; Presentation Manager applications will still be relatively scarce by November, and the Intel 80486 processor will probably not yet be shipping. Thus there will probably be little compelling new hardware or software from the IBM-compatible vendors.
By contrast, Apple will be in the midst of one of the biggest product rollouts in the history of personal computing; it might even be able to make some introductions at Comdex. Major improvements to the Macintosh operating system will also be ready to demonstrate, if not ship. We think Apple can make its return to the main floor at Comdex into a gigantic coming-out party for Macintosh, and in the process dominate the show. It is not often that Apple gets the opportunity to outshine the entire IBM-standard world on its own turf, and we think Apple should seize this chance aggressively.
Introduction
The annual Fall Comdex show was held in Las Vegas in late November. As usual, it was heavily-attended, and did not feature any major surprises. But there were some important announcements and developments. This report summarizes them.
Focus changing from resellers to end-users. Comdex started as a show designed to let vendors and resellers do business face to face. That focus has changed. Today many, if not most, Comdex attendees are PC users—especially corporate MIS managers “kicking the tires” on the latest equipment. Many reporters and industry observers also use the show to gauge the importance of various trends in the industry. Comdex generates an enormous amount of publicity in the trade and general press every year. In many ways, it has become the key forum in which PC companies shape and reinforce their marketing messages for the entire year.
Apple Presence
Continued progress. The presence of Macintosh at Comdex seems to gain every year, and 1988 was no exception. A couple of years ago, it was almost impossible to find a Macintosh in any booth on the main show floor. This year, although Macintosh was still massively outnumbered by PCs, Apple’s computers were in many more booths.
Especially gratifying were the Aldus booth, which was majority Macintosh, and the Microsoft booth, which was about 50% Macintosh. Last year’s Microsoft booth had almost no Macintoshes, so this was an important change. On the other hand, Caere Corporation, which makes the OmniPage OCR package for Macintosh and Windows, did not have a single Macintosh in its booth.
A sign of Apple’s successes. We think the trend toward more Macintosh computers at Comdex is a sign of the increasing acceptance of Macintosh in mainstream personal computing. In the past, some vendors seemed to deliberately downplay their involvement with Apple. Now Macintosh computers are often in the front of the booth, with a lot of attention focused on them. Comdex is still dominated by IBM-standard PCs, but Macintosh continues to make good progress.
The Apple booth. Like last year, Apple’s booth was in a room off the main show floor. The booth was well-attended, but we think it was sought out primarily by people who were already interested in Apple. The secluded booth setting was good for conducting business, but did not expose Macintosh to as many attendees as would a booth on the main floor. Next year Apple is scheduled to return to the main show floor. Since Comdex is becoming more and more a forum for setting industry attitudes, we think Apple’s move toward increased visibility is appropriate.
A separate show next year. Comdex show management announced that next year a separate Macintosh-focused show, called Macdex, will be held in Las Vegas at the same time as Comdex. The new show will be targeted to attract resellers, some of whom have complained that Macworld Expos are too crowded with end-users.
A Macintosh-exclusive show during Comdex might help to show off the capabilities of Macintosh in an attractive forum, or it might serve as a ghetto pulling Macintosh exhibits out of the main show and separating Macintosh from the PC mainstream. We think Apple would be wise to focus most of its attention on the main show, where it can try to recruit the huge numbers of PC buyers who still use IBM-standard equipment.
Trends
Among the key trends at this fall’s Comdex were the wide array of portables, rising interest in faxes, and a growing emphasis on graphical user interfaces. However, what may be more significant were the trends that were not present. There was surprisingly little software for MS Windows (we think most Windows developers can’t afford to exhibit at Comdex), few OS/2 applications or Micro Channel clones, and little interest in Unix.
Portables, portables, portables. This certainly was the year of the portable at Comdex. We saw portables everywhere, especially from the Japanese vendors. They ranged from a variety of high-end and heavy 386-based systems, to the just over 4 pound NEC UltraLite. It appears that technology, price points and demand factors are finally combining to make the portables market real.
Color LCDs. Three manufacturers showed prototypes of color liquid crystal displays. Color LCDs are one of the key missing links in the development of portable computers that provide desktop functionality in a lightweight package. Hitachi showed a laptop with a 6.3-inch eight-color active matrix LCD screen. NEC demonstrated a similar screen, but appears to be further away from entering the market. Sharp has taken different route with its color LCD. It showed an 11-inch screen based on double supertwist technology (DST). DST supports VGA (640 x 480) resolution. However, DST does not provide fast screen updating like active matrix, and so would not function very well in tracking a mouse.
Japanese vendors more prominent. Although, the Japanese vendors have been becoming more prominent at Comdex for several years, this show really demonstrated that the Japanese aim to be true competitors. IBM’s booth was virtually surrounded by Japanese vendors. It was also clear that much of the hardware innovation on the main floor was at the Japanese booths, particularly Sharp, NEC, and Canon. We expect this trend to continue.
Faxes more commonplace. Many vendors were showing new lines of faxes. While the increase in faxes correlates somewhat the increasing prominence of the Japanese vendors, it still is a trend in itself. Here, as in the portable market, technology and price have combined to make available innovative and inexpensive facsimile devices. While demand for faxes in the US is still dwarfed by that in Japan, we expect the US fax market to grow dramatically over the next several years.
Graphical user interfaces were emphasized, but those without applications had little interest. There was Presentation Manager, MS Windows, HP’s New Wave, AT&T’s Open Look, Wang’s Freestyle, and of course Apple’s Macintosh. However, only those environments featuring genuine applications, such as Windows and Macintosh, drew crowds. The others attracted relatively little attention. In fact, the only unfinished environment that excited anyone at all was Presentation Manager, and we think people were drawn to that primarily because IBM brought in a group of OS/2 developers to show prototype applications.
No groundswell of support for MS Windows. There has been some indication recently that the high costs and lack of applications for OS/2 would result in heavier support for Windows as an interim solution. Although some users may be thinking along those lines, we didn’t see a lot of new Windows software from vendors.
Do users care about buses? In spite of all the hype about competing bus standards, few users seemed to be interested in either IBM’s Micro Channel, or the Extended Industry Standard Architecture from IBM’s competitors. Show attendees seemed to have trouble understanding what either bus could do for them.
Acceptance of OS/2...but skepticism about when it’ll appear. About a year ago, IBM said that 1000 real OS/2 applications would be available at this Comdex show. IBM ended up with about a hundred — and many of those are programming utilities. Few customers seemed to buy IBM’s repeated assertion that OS/2 is just around the corner, and ready to use today. However, they also did not seem to be turning away from the operating system in the long run; there was a lot of interest in OS/2 exhibits, and most of the major DOS companies seem to be developing for it. We think OS/2 will eventually catch on, but later than IBM and Microsoft would like.
General lack of interest in UNIX. There has been much talk about the acceptance of Unix in the commercial market. However, if Comdex is any indicator, Unix is almost dead in the water in PC markets. There was little excitement at AT&T’s Open Look demonstration, Sun’s booth drew only light traffic, and almost no one else was even showing Unix systems.
Companies
Microsoft. Microsoft's booth was, as usual, one of the busiest at the show. Microsoft’s new slogan is “Microsoft. Making it all make sense.” So Microsoft is apparently positioning its products as offering product compatibility in the midst of the confusion of many environments.
Microsoft emphasized its Macintosh products more than it did at last year’s Fall COMDEX. Last year, 12 of Microsoft’s 14 demo stations were showing PC products, while this year, only 9 of its 13 stations were showing PC products. Perhaps this is because its Macintosh applications are now experiencing more competition. The three products most heavily emphasized by Microsoft were PC Word (version 5.0), Macintosh Word (version 4.0), and PC Excel.
Two IBM booths. IBM had two booths. One was an OS/2 applications booth (described below). The other showed a variety of IBM hardware and software, and had an open theatre which simulated a bus ride. As the view from a moving vehicle was projected on a screen, the costumed bus driver sat at a steering wheel and "drove" while describing the advantages of the Micro Channel bus. Occasionally the bus would stop and the screen would show end users and industry leaders (such as Enzo Torresi of Businessland) giving testimonials about the advantages of Micro Channel. Reliability was identified as a key advantage. Business owners spoke of the dire consequences of using a PC whose bus might not be reliable. The message was only lightly veiled: FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt)—with the emphasis on "fear".
In the other booth, third-party developers like Aldus, Micrografx, and ZSoft demonstrated prototypes of their Presentation Manager applications. The booth also had a theater, this one with a presentation on the features of OS/2 and DOS. While waiting for the skit to begin, the attendee faced a bank of 32 monitors glaring with the IBM logo. The images were multiplied by mirrors on the side walls of the theatre, creating a strong, almost eerie effect. (Ed. note: I surpressed the impulse to run down the aisle and throw a hammer into the screens.)
Micro Channel and Presentation Manager were definitely the key products promoted by IBM. IBM plastered its Micro Channel PC slogan “Right for today, ready for tomorrow” all over Las Vegas. And one of its booths had a sign stating that 624 Micro Channel boards are now available (and many of these board were displayed on walls in its booth). IBM claimed that 30-40 more MCA boards are becoming available each month.
IBM’s booths did not seem to be as well attended as some previous Comdexes.
Compaq quietly maintaining its position. Compaq's booth was on the main floor, but located near a corner, away from the "big guys". Attendance in the booth was light, except for interest in the new SLT laptop. In a small theatre, a slide show presented Compaq's message: quality, compatibility and performance. The show was odd in that it had no narration, just music, images, and printed works. It seemed flat. Consistent with Compaq's marketing strategy, there was almost no emphasis on applications. Buttons saying "CAD/CAE - Compaq for power to build on" were available at the info desk, but the theme was not prominently pushed.
NEC pushing dealer promo. NEC’s Information Systems and Home Electronics divisions had two large adjoining booths. (To most customers, they probably appeared to be on big booth.) NEC's corporate theme, “Computers and Communications,” was prominent. NEC was pushing a dealer program called "ProClub" that allows dealer reps and dealer management to earn points toward prizes and trips when they sell NEC products, but most of the interest in the booth was on the NEC Ultralite laptop computer.
AT&T marketing hot air? AT&T had an extremely prominant position on the floor with a triple-sized booth spanning much of the main entry to the exhibit area. The booth displayed third party solutions including UNIX applications. Placards displaying the theme, “AT&T - Open for Business,” were illustrated with pictures of hot air balloons. An actual hot air balloon was tethered in a lot near the convention center. The booth was busy with representatives of the developers, but never seemed to attract a crowd of attendees.
AT&T demonstrated the OpenLook interface for Unix in its booth, but the demonstration attracted almost no one. The product didn’t look very impressive, either — with stilted narration and few compelling features. Of course, it’s hard to demonstrate an interface with no applications, and OpenLook currently has no software written for it.
HP's song and dance. HP's booth was strange. A tuxedoed couple sang and danced as they presented the "symphony of HP's products". The tone of the actors was insincere and the production was awkward. On the other hand, HP has never excelled at marketing anyway, and its products — especially the printers — seemed to be attracting a lot of attention.
Sun comes to Comdex with Tops. Sun Microsystems and Tops, a Sun subsidiary, had adjoining booths in the West Hall, a building next door to the main exhibit. Workstation and minicomputer companies do not typically exhibit at Comdex and this is the first year that Sun has had a booth. Sun's presence underscores its efforts to develop VAR and retail resellers. However, it didn’t attract big crowds.
Hardware
CPUs
Battling bus architectures. The battle between IBM’s Micro Channel bus architecture and that of the rival EISA group continued at Comdex. EISA members put up signs trumpeting their presence, while IBM devoted much of one booth to showing Micro Channel-compatible products. We thought show attendees had little interest in either bus architecture, probably because IBM has yet to demonstrate a compelling, easy to understand use for Micro Channel, and the EISA group has yet to even finish its new bus.
Micro Channel clones from Europe. IBM’s PC sales are doing better in Europe than they are in the US, so it was not surprising that the only new Micro Channel clones on display at the show were from that side of the Atlantic. Several small, relatively unknown European companies announced Micro Channel compatibles, but attracted relatively little attention.
New computers. There were few new computers announced at the show. Probably the most interesting were several from AST, including one based on the 80386SX chip. The XXXXXX has about the same footprint as an IBM PS/2 Model 70, but is just two inches high. AST achieved this size reduction by mounting the expansion boards horizontally, and putting the video support and some other functions into modules which can be snapped directly onto the motherboard.
Laptops
Battery powered laptops were being demonstrated in more booths than ever before. These laptops ranged from very light, very mobile, machines with limited functionality to heavier machines that have performance comparable to full-function desktop machines.
Cambridge. The lightest laptops were from Cambridge and NEC. Cambridge’s Z88 laptop is priced at $599, weighs less than two pounds, and includes word processing, spreadsheet, and database software in ROM. Cambridge has just announced MacLink, a facility to move files between the Z88 and the Macintosh. Previously, only a PCLink had been available.
NEC. NEC’s recently announced UltraLite received a lot of attention. The UltraLite is very interesting technologically, since it weighs only 4.4 pounds and takes up about the same desk space as an 8.5” by 11” sheet of paper. However, it is fairly expensive at $2,999, and has no floppy drive. NEC booth personnel predicted that the UltraLite would ship at the end of December, but we have yet to see one.
Compaq is hoping that its SLT/286 will satisfy the demands of laptop customers who want a full-function desktop machine and are willing to carry 14 pounds. A lot of people were drawn to an SLT packaged in a transparent plastic case. Even though most if the components were hidden behind shielding, users seemed fascinated to see what was inside the computer.
Sharp was getting large crowds around its Wizard demonstration. Wizard is a hand-held calculator that Sharp bills as an “Electronic Organizer.” It provides a number of built-in electronic functions, such as a calendar, appointment book, telephone directory, and a memo pad. Optional IC cards allow it to perform other tasks, such as a thesaurus and dictionary, an eight language translator, and a time expense manager. Its key selling point is its size; it only weighs 8.6 ounces (including batteries). In the future a hard-wire PC link-up cable will be available so that the Wizard can transfer information between itself and an IBM PC. (A Macintosh connection is promised later.) Wizard is very popular in Japan, with a lot of IC cards available for it. We think it will also do well in the US.
Printers
Qume’s PostScript clone. Probably the most interesting printer demo at the show, from Apple’s point of view, was that conducted by Qume. The company showed off its new CrystalPrint Publisher, a small 300 dpi printer equipped with a PostScript clone and RISC processor made by Weitek Corp. Qume claims that the printer is several times the speed of a LaserWriter IINT, and indeed it did print faster a sample document created by Qume. A lot of people were crowded into the booth, but most of them seemed to be less interested in watching the demo than in getting the autographs of swimmer Matt Biondi and other famous athletes Qume placed in the booth.
Other printer products of interest included the following:
• HP showed off its new duplexing laser printer, the LaserJet IID. It didn’t seem to be attracting any special attention.
• Sharp displayed its JX-XXX color ink-jet, which is about equivalent to the HP PaintJet in resolution, but looks a lot more rugged, versatile — and bigger.
Peripherals
Unlike computer systems, there were a lot of new peripherals at the show. Among of the highlights were the following:
Scanners from Sharp. The Japanese electronics giant continued its growing activity in peripherals, unveiling two new low-cost color scanners. The scanners are Macintosh-compatible, and were demonstrated using Macintosh equipment. The JX-XXX is the most innovative of the few. It is a small unit about the size of two paperback books liad end to end. The user places it over the picture to be scanned, and the scanning element moves back and forth over the image. The scanner costs just $XXXXX, but is relatively slow, and can input only a X” by X” image. Nevertheless, it is something of a price-performance breakthrough.
The JX-XXX is a full-page color scanner. It produces up to 300 dpi resolution, with 24 bits of color information. At a price of $XXXX, it is one of the least expensive full-function color scanners on the market today. We think it will sell very well.
New projection system from Kodak. The company showed an LCD-based color projection system that puts out crisp images of CGA color screens from an IBM-compatible computer. The images are very sharp and clear, and at a price of $XXX, the unit is attractively priced.
Alps mouse substitute was intriguing. Although Alps was not in the main halls, it was demonstrating a prototype of a very intriguing product. Basically, it is a mouse substitute that sits just below the spacebar. Consisting of an integrated roll bar (for vertical movement) and a slide (for horizontal movement), it allows a user to keep his or her hands on the keyboard and manipulate the cursor with the thumbs. To select an item, you click by pushing down on the roller.
This could be used as an add-on product or built-in permanently to the keyboard. It is an interesting mousing method for portables using graphical user interfaces, taking up less space than a mouse or track-ball. However, it is difficult to click and drag with the Alps product, especially at an angle. Alps stated that two companies would be incorporating this into their portable products in 2H89. We believe that GRiD is one of those companies.
Software
Operating Environments
AT&T showed Open Look, its graphical user interface for UNIX. (Sun, which is developing Open Look in conjunction with AT&T, was not showing Open Look in its booth.) AT&T claimed that Open Look would be available to developers in March. Even if that date is met, applications for Open Look will probably not appear until late 1989 or early 1990. Open Look appeared to be slow in the demonstrations. AT&T claims that the reason it appeared slow was that the demonstration was showing multitasking with many applications running at the same time, and that Open Look is implemented on top of X-Windows, which slows it down. Whatever the case, Open Look’s performance problems could hurt it.
Hewlett-Packard was demonstrating its New Wave interface at a single station. HP stated that availability for the end-user version of New Wave had slipped from November 1988 to 2Q89. HP said it is developing a word processor and a mail package for New Wave. We did not see any indication of support for the New Wave environment in other developer’s booths.
Microsoft Windows was displayed all around the show. PC compatible vendors were often running Windows and PC Excel on their systems, and a few developers were showing new Windows applications. It appears that Windows is becoming much more popular among end-users. Microsoft claims that more than 70,000 retail copies of Windows were shipped in September.
Key reasons for the success of Windows include a growing interest in graphical user interfaces, an increasing number of Windows applications, and the fact that Windows resembles OS/2 Presentation Manager. Rather than lay out the large hardware investment required by Presentation Manager, many users seem to want to turn to Windows as an interim upgrade solution between DOS and PM. However, we think there still aren’t enough WIndows applications to make that move viable for most PC users.
Wang Freestyle received a great deal of attention. Freestyle works by capturing a snapshot-like picture of any screen that can be displayed on a PC monitor. It can also accept scanner or Fax images. Once this picture is captured, it becomes a page that the user can annotate by writing, typing, or speaking into a handset. These annotations are then played back, in real time, when another user opens the document. Further, Freestyle provides an electronic desktop that attempts to mimic a real desktop. It has icons such as a stapler (to combine documents), a printer (to print documents), a fax machine (to send fax images of documents), and a mailbox (for sharing documents over a network). Wang’s tag line for Freestyle was, “You already know how to use it.”
We think Freestyle is a great technology, but it has some significant weaknesses that should limit its acceptance. This solution is expensive. To obtain the basic capabilities costs $2,000, and this includes an AT interface board, software, a stylus and a tablet. The scanner, fax, and voice capabilities are additional options (voice annotation costs $1,400). Currently, the only way to share voice and written annotations is to be connected to a Wang VS minicomputer and to send to another Freestyle users who is connected to a VS. Therefore, since only VS customers can take full advantage of Freestyle’s capabilities, Freestyle has very limited market potential. However, Wang has indicated that it will eventually allow Freestyle users to share annotated documents across networks other than the VS.
We think Freestyle would be a good fit into the Macintosh operating environment, but Wang has not publicly indicated interest in porting it over.
OS/2 Applications
IBM’s misleading OS/2 promotions. IBM had a big booth which was dedicated to showing OS/2 applications. Many developers had stations in that booth to display their OS/2 prototypes. As noted above, much of IBM’s activity at the show was focused on convincing attendees that OS/2 is taking off now. Although most of the press does not seem to be taken in, some customers and developers seem to believe that OS/2 is a lot closer to taking over the world than it really is. Here are some examples of IBM’s misleading promotions...
• IBM distributes OS/2 application guide. IBM distributed handbooks which listed all announced OS/2 applications. This handbook listed about 800 applications, both those that are written for OS/2 1.0 and 1.1. Although many of these applications are not available (such as none of the OS/2 1.1 applications), the large size of the handbook gives the impression that OS/2 is taking off.
• IBM’s misleading pamphlet. IBM also distributed a pamphlet which its booth personnel said listed all currently shipping OS/2 applications. This pamphlet listed about 260 programs. We could tell right off that this listing was innaccurate, because it included PC Excel and Word 4.0, neither of which is an OS/2 application. The vast majority of the other programs are unknown to us (such as Lugaru Make, whatever the heck that is), so we cannot tell if they are shipping OS/2 applications. Furthermore, many of these “applications” are simply utilities (such as Norton On-Line Programmer’s Guides) or programmer’s tools (such as Hamilton C Shell) and so should not be considered standalone applications.
• IBM’s misleading sign. IBM had a large sign in its booth that stated, “OS/2: Over 800 Solutions Available.” We asked many of IBM’s booth personnel what that meant, and none of them were sure. Some thought that was the number of applications developed for OS/2 that are available, but that is not true. Approximately 800 have been announced, but most of those are not shipping. We think that IBM meant the 800 to include DOS applications that run in OS/2’s compatibility box. However, that is very misleading. Those are not OS/2 solutions; those are DOS solutions.
IBM bundling SideKick with Presentation Manager. IBM announced that it will give a copy of Borland's SideKick to anyone who buys OS/2 1.1. This version of SideKick, which was developed for Presentation Manager, adds graphical interface features such as icons and overlapping windows. Initially, SideKick will only be available through this promotion. A retail version of SideKick for Presentation Manager will be available from Borland in January and will be priced at $249.95. SideKick will be the first application to become available for Presentation Manager.
IBM raises OS/2 prices. An IBM representative told us that IBM raised some of its software prices in August. The price of Standard Edition 1.1 was raised from $325 to $340, and the price of Extended Edition 1.1 was raised from $795 to $830. This has not been picked up by the press, however, this makes IBM’s already steep operating system prices even higher. Apple, which bundles its operating system for free, should call more attention to this substantial and often overlooked difference.
OS/2 banners. Many signs that simply read “OS/2” in large letters were hung from the ceiling. These were apparently hung above vendors who had announced support for OS/2. So, for example, a sign was hanging above NCR’s booth, apparently because NCR supports OS/2 running on its PC compatibles. These banners gave the impression that OS/2 was everywhere, which was misleading.
Productivity Software
Word processing. Samna demonstrated Ami, its new word processor for Windows. This is the first competitive word processor which has become available for Windows, and should further improve customer acceptance of the Windows environment. It is now available. Microsoft was making a lot of noise about Word 5.0 (scheduled to ship at the end of this year), which it claims has many more features than WordPerfect 5.0.
Spreadsheets. Nothing new in the spreadsheet arena. Lotus was demonstrating 1-2-3 Release 3, but it wasn’t getting too much notice, since Lotus has been showing it for many months and since its release date has slipped to 2Q89. Innovative’s Wingz got a lot of attention. Informix had the same enclosed room and Leonard Nimoy video that it had at Spring COMDEX and at the last two MacWorlds. Attendees waited in line for 30 to 45 minutes to get into the room and receive a nice Wingz bag. Wingz is still an exciting technology, but has become less interesting since its new scheduled release date is 2Q89.
Database. Oracle was showing its Macintosh version of Oracle. Ashton-Tate had a low profile. It was demonstrating all of its products, and was not pushing dBASE IV as heavily as we might have thought.
Miscellaneous
Byte's poll. The Byte booth took an opinion poll, asking the attendees "Which operating system/user interface will become the dominant force in the personal computer industry by the end of 1992?" This is the same question Byte asked at Spring Comdex. Here are the Fall results:
1) DOS 2,740 votes
2) UNIX 1,366 votes
3) OS/2 891 votes
4) None will dominate 438 votes
5) MacOS (Apple) 164 votes
6) Other 57 votes
This poll was not done scientifically, but it does indicate that the attendees at COMDEX believe that DOS will continue to be the standard for the next four years. It is interesting to note that the conviction that OS/2 will become the industry standard by year-end 1992 fell dramatically from Spring to Fall. Among show attendess who were polled earlier in the year at COMDEX/Spring (May 1988), one-third expressed the opinion that OS/2 would dominate by 1992. By contrast, at the COMDEX/Fall show only half as many poll participants—16%—selected OS/2 as the operating environment most likely to become dominant. We think this reflects the recent burst of press reports about the high memory requirements of OS/2, and the lengthy delays in bringing out OS/2 applications.
We don’t know what to make of the strong support for Unix, since almost no one turned out for the few Unix demos at the show. We think many of the votes for Unix may have actually been anti-OS/2 votes.
The Macintosh OS is usually ranked as insignificant by attendees at this IBM-dominated show; it dropped from 5% at COMDEX/Spring to 3% at COMDEX/Fall. Also, few people would expect the Macintosh OS to become the dominant force in the industry, because it runs only on Apple’s computers.
Conclusion
In spite of the overcrowded halls, scarce hotel spaces, and long Taxi lines, Fall Comdex continues to be the personal computer industry’s premier get-together. Every year industry analysts fed up with the inconvenience and hassles of the show predict its demise, but to us the show looks very durable.
